12 wk VL results = 20 VL

[GingerSnap]

Hi All,
Hope everyone is doing well.
I just got my 12 wk viral load results --->  the VL # is  "20"  using Lab Corp Quantasure Plus which goes down to 10.
My previous VL results are:
Pre tx VL =   2.8 million IU =   6.453 log
2 wk post tx VL =  136,000 IU = 5.134 log.
4 wk post tx VL =    10,900 IU = 4.037 log.
8 wk post tx VL =        270 IU  = 2.43 log.
I am Genotype 1a with bx of  Grade 2 Stage 2. 
This is my first time tx - started tx Jan 8, 2008 taking pegasys 180 mcg weekly and Ribavirin 1000 mg daily. 
Just wondering if anyone else has had such a low VL result. 
IF I become UND at  24 week, I think that gives me about 45-50% SVR chance.  Does anyone know if this 45-50% sounds correct, and if it is based on tx for 48 wk or 72 wks?  My doctor wants me to treat for 72 wks.
Just trying to get an idea of what to expect.   I am trying to relate to my 12 wk VL news, and I am not sure if I am up to doing 72 wks with what I think are just so-so odds.
If anyone has been in a similar situation, I would appreciate hearing how it went for you.
Thanks.  Take care..... GingerB.

[MissyMouse]

Hey Ginger,

That's a great VL drop!  My 12 weeker was a weird low like that also.  I had the PCR that measures down to 50 and my viral load came back at 109.  So yeppers dear, you done good!  You kicked dragon arse!  I'm a genotype 1a and I'm on my second round of treatment.  I went 48 the first time and am going 72 this time.  My advice, if you are offered the 72 weeks, try and do it.  If you can do the 72 weeks the first time your chances at SVR are slightly higher and it lowers the risk of doing 48 weeks, relapsing and then turning around and doing 72.

I believe the percentages your doctor gave you on SVR are based on a 48 week course of treatment.

Mouse

[robin]

WOW...I can't believe they do so many viral counts on you. I didn't have one until week 12. I agree with Missy...you seem to be responding quite well. Keep your spirits high...robin

[GingerSnap]

Thank you Mouse and Robin for your encouraging replies.  I am still not sure what I will do as I find I am going back and forth with my feelings.  I hope you are both doing well....and I wish you all the best.  Thanks Ginger.

[RedRodeo]

Hi Ginger,
     Thats about right 45-50%, I don't remember what genotype you have. But remember these are just statistics. The literture says and my md 48 wks for genotype has about 50% chance. I have genotype 3 and 45-50% is the success rate if I go 24wks. But thats because we had to lower my riba dose and the damage to my liver. So he's pushing for 48wks which he says I would have a 90%. So I guess you and I have some decissions to make. The last week has been better and attribute that to taking Effexor SR. We will see. I just got to pray about it. But your numbers coming down nicely.
     Red Chris

[robin]

Ginger...why is your doctor recommending 72 weeks? Have you treated before and not cleared? There are a lot of people who clear at 48 weeks. Sitting here wondering why your doctor recommeded the extended treatment. Keep your spirits high...robin

[GingerSnap]

Thank you all for your replies.  I am GT 1a and originally my doctor told me that my course of tx was 48 wks.  Then after I started tx and after we reviewed my recent VL test results,  he stated that I would need to tx for 72 wks.  I personally think that it would have been better if my doctor had told me in our previous discussions about the possibility of having to tx for 72 wks  because we had only talked about 48 weeks and I was not prepared to hear that.   My doctor's rational  for this is that since GT1 doesn't have the best SVR rates, by extending we get better odds (and I seem to be hearing that this is not so uncommon).   My doctor said that if a 1a patient is not a rapid responder, then that patient should definitely treat for 72 wks.  I give credit to all those that are brave enough and determined enough to treat, especially those who tx more than once, and those that do extended tx.  I am afraid that if I am not motivated, that I will not be able to make it through 72 weeks.  And I did lose some motivation when I found out that I had to tx for 72 weeks and was concerned if the odds are not in my favor.  And then I started to wonder about the PI that will supposedly offer 24 week tx -  how tempting is that for GT 1's ?!  I am giving this a lot of thought and trying to figure out what to do.    All I can say, as you all must know, it is not always easy.  Thanks again for all your help.  Ginger

[MissyMouse]

Ginger,

When I relapsed after doing 48 weeks I called a very wise man ... his name is DougV.  I told Doug that I felt like I had just wasted 48 weeks of my life.  Doug brought me right back to reality and got me off my pity pot in a big hurry.  This is what Doug said to me and it's oh so true ....


"Missy, you did just waste 48 weeks of your life but you knew that was a possibility when you went into this.  The odds are not in favor of geno 1's and we know that".

Being a geno 1 you have to assume the risk.  It's a sad reality but we really only have a 40% chance of SVR.  That is why a lot of geno 1's with Stage 2 or less liver damage do not treat.  It's just not worth the 40% risk to them when this disease is so slow moving.

I'm doing 72 weeks on my round 2 right now, DougV is doing daily infergen shots on his round 2.  We both know that our chances of SVR are only 10% this time around.  But again, we have assumed this risk.    I guess what I'm saying is it's a matter of understanding the risk that we are taking and deciding if it's worth it for us.  It's not an easy decision.

Mouse

[GingerSnap]

Hi Missy Mouse,
I agree with you.
I had given so much thought into deciding to treat, never realizing that there would be more decisions to make.  I am so torn and at times I feel afraid to go on and at other times I feel I might as well continue and give it what I got.
With 72 weeks of tx, if one is ready to go for it, I would imagine gives better SVR odds than the 48 weeks of tx.
 Missy, am I correct in understanding that you said that you have a 10 % SVR chance this time?  I don't understand that since you are doing an extended tx this time??  Do you think if someone treats a second time that it can lessen the SVR rates ?
I hope to gather some strength from you and all your help and knowledge...thanks....Ginger
 

 


 
 

 

 

[MissyMouse]

Ginger,

Basically, the feelilng is that if you relapse once to interferon chances are it will probably happen again, especially with advanced liver disease.    But .... I have VERY high hopes for myself and feel in my gut that  I'm gonna be in that 10%.  The other positive that always has to be remembered is that so long as we treat, we are giving our livers a rest.


Mouse

[RedRodeo]

Hey Ginger,
    How are doing today. Its quite a quandry that we are in. I don't know how to resolve them. Ask God or whatever for guidance. But I haven't been able to do that. My memory is so poor. I work as a pharmacist but for years I made money on the side as a muscian. But I've had to stop that when I started this. The point is can't remember the words to songs even at home. Bummer. No one can make these decisions. Until I got on this site I had never heard of people taking this stuff for 72 wks. Its a wonder insurance companies pay for this. My vote is do it as long as you can. Thats what I am going to try. But I've been working on a plan. Say if I stop at 24 wks, then 2 wks later go in for a vl and liver enymes,  And see what the results are. If there is any indication of relapse. Start it again and finish the 48 wks. From past experiences I have learned that the virus replicates very very quickly. I can't imagine stoping for 2 wks could alters the long term results that much. My 24wks will be up May 11th.
     Right now the rashes on my legs are driving me crazy. Once I start scrathing I can't stop.
     Take care
      Red Chris

[19Dragon52]

{{{Hi Ginger}}}

Just wanted to give you a look at the other side of the coin.  I am a genotype 1a with grade 2/stage 2 and when I started TX in 2005 there was no talk of 72 weeks on the Dragon Juice.  I was an early responder (12 weeks) and continued to be clear right up to the end...9/22/06...48 weeks.  Today I am 18 months SVR.  I will be tested yearly for 4 more years.  Am I a Grateful Hepper?!  You Betchya!  I try to maintain a healthy lifestyle as far as foods & supplements.  There are some wonderful suggestions in our Alternative Treatment Forum.  It helps me maintain a healthy post-tx regimen.  Am I the "Norm?"  I don't think so.  I can tell you there will be some aprehension for each year I have to be checked but with each passing moment the odds get better and better.  Perhaps the 72 weeks on TX is that glimmer of hope that will make clearing more of a reality for all.

Wishing You The Best.....

[robin]

Hey Ginger...sorry to hear about the 72 weeks but look at the whole picture...72 weeks in the whole scope of your lifetime will not be that much. Even when compared to doing 48 weeks...doing 732 is not that many more. Stay tough and kick that dragons @ss. Keep your spirits high...robin

[GingerSnap]

Thank you all for you kind words.  I still am uncertain as to what to do, and will continue to do some more thinking. Thanks....Ginger

[robin]

Think I'll rephrase my comment that 732 months is NOT that much. I'd be rebelling like a maniac if I thought I'd have to do 732 months...now 72 months...different story.  Keep your spirits high...robin